Forum Mafia #13 - Town Wins

[Sn0w.ps]

I know but that's the thing, and I agree with a no lynch tbh, BUT we are not guaranteed to pick a mafia are we?

[201TinyTim]

No we are not but even if we dont pick a mafia at all until beginning of day 3 we still would have 5 people alive (2 mafia and 3 innocent) and therefore still a slim chance of beating mafia But if we do lynch then would only be 4 alive so loss, so even though we are not guranteed a mafia pick from my tracker skill, and the odds are ill pick the wrong person, it is still the best option to no lynch so we get an extra days chance

[almightybob.ps]

I agree tbh but how we guaranteed a trade if tiny lives? I dont get it?

We're only guaranteed a trade if we have a Cop or Jailkeeper (or the real Tracker) who comes forward, because that means Tiny cannot be the Tracker and therefore is Mafia. Alternatively the person who comes forward is lying, and therefore Mafia. Either way, we get a guaranteed Mafia kill.

If Tiny is telling the truth we do not have a guaranteed trade, and will have to rely on other techniques to catch Mafia. In which case a no-lynch gives us more chances to do so.

So we should wait to see if any Cop or Jailkeeper reveals themselves now that I have pointed out something they may not have realised, and if they don't, we assume Tiny is telling the truth and no-lynch.

[Apoc.ps]

This is totally subjective...but by my reckoning: 4 players haven't made any meaningful posts in more than 3 days (despite everyone being online less than 24 hours ago...for some of you it's 4 and 5 days! )

I can only assume you have nothing more to say


Day 1 Deadline: Wednesday 5th @ 11pm

I will extend the deadline if at least four people ask me to via PM

[gunmens]

if we have a 1 of the special roles we dont want them to come forward today. make use of a night stage at least provide us with an innocent/mafia name to help us out for the sake of 1 night.

I think its too hard to call at this time but tbh it will still be the same on day 2 just possibly 1 less person i dont think we should no lynch chances wont change in my opinion and it just delays us..

[201TinyTim]

I think the chances do change since it will then give us a chance of an extra day 3, it seems like your against this idea to give townies an extra chance?

[almightybob.ps]

if we have a 1 of the special roles we dont want them to come forward today. make use of a night stage at least provide us with an innocent/mafia name to help us out for the sake of 1 night.

Certainly a Jailkeeper should 100% come forward right now - his role cannot otherwise help find a Mafia with anywhere near as much certainty as trading their life for a guaranteed Mafia kill. The longer they leave it, the less chance we have to test who is lying. The only pro-Town move for a Jailkeeper is to claim today.

I would expect any Cop to claim immediately on receiving a guilty result. The longer they leave it, the greater the chance that the Town will be unable to trust their claim, as well as the risk of them dying and taking all their investigation results to the grave. Not to mention the fact that, if there is a Cop, there is a good chance that the Mafia has a Roleblocker meaning he might not even get any results due to sheer bad luck. The gamble is just not worth it when compared to the prospect of a guaranteed Mafia kill.

I for one will not trust any Cop or Jailkeeper claim made on Day 2 or 3.

I think its too hard to call at this time but tbh it will still be the same on day 2 just possibly 1 less person i dont think we should no lynch chances wont change in my opinion and it just delays us..

I just explained with my diagram that a no-lynch today will give the Town more of a chance. Which part of it did you not understand?

Day 1 Deadline: Wednesday 5th @ 11pm

I urge all Town players to request an extension of the deadline until everyone has had a chance to check in and confirm that they do not wish to claim Cop or Jailkeeper. At that point we can no-lynch.

[201TinyTim]

Also since it seems like we are going via no-lynch i will have a 50% survival rate due to if have doctor or bulletproof. Does anyone have any person they highly suspect and want me to check for the night, because i am not fully sure who to check and im constantly going over all pages looking at everything but i just get multiple people tying for suspiciousness so i would probably lucky dip between them

[Vox]

I have not had time to go over all these posts as I am away on business (again). I am all for a no lynch (although I have not read bob's diagram yet), I trust you guys that it is accurate and makes sense.

As far as Tiny's target for the night I would personally target Rev. I think bob's posts suggest that bob is not mafia (unless it's the most elaborate cover up in the history of mafia...) and he was the only other person I was suspicious of.

There are of course people who have been quiet that I have not formed opinions of yet and will not have time really this week to go through all the posts; so by all means target someone else if you have a suspicion (almost tempted to nominate myself just to quash some of the group's suspicions but it would be a wasted action).

[Seric.ps]

I still feel edgy about Hawk, his replies seem off to me, post synopsis:

-Stroopwaffels
-Stroopwaffels (votes gunmens)
-"I've been working"/Stroopwaffels(unvotes gunmens)
-I'm suspicious because I'm taking part and Rev's suspicious because why not
-defensive/accusatory post re:sn0w vote
-fin-

Maybe he's been distracted by other commitments or maybe I'm just too full of stroopwaffel - you can't read much into it. But as Tim's asking for opinions on our group, I thought I'd drop in my two pence.

Also since it seems like we are going via no-lynch i will have a 50% survival rate due to if have doctor or bulletproof. Does anyone have any person they highly suspect and want me to check for the night, because i am not fully sure who to check and im constantly going over all pages looking at everything but i just get multiple people tying for suspiciousness so i would probably lucky dip between them

Right now, you're the only bit of information we've got to go on man, everything else is conjecture. Lucky dip is about as good odds as we can hope for.

<snip>I just explained with my diagram that a no-lynch today will give the Town more of a chance. Which part of it did you not understand?</snip>

Nice post, especially the beautifully rendered diagram. Speaking of which, doesn't your diagram assume we don't successfully lynch or Tim doesn't successfully track a mafia player or for the duration? Potentially a blind pick would garner a 25% success rate, or around 28% if we assume Tim is a tracker. I guess the odds should be slightly better if you're tying a noose around someone's neck. We don't wanna be some kinda Texan legal system here.

Vote: No lynch

[Apoc.ps]

********************************
Vote Count as of Wed 5th Nov @ 3pm

2 No Lynch............(TinyTim, Seric)
2 Vox.....................(almightybob, Rev)
1 Hawk..................(Sn0w)
0 almightybob
0 TinyTim
0 Gunmens
0 Sn0w
0 Rev

3 players not voting*.......(Gunmens, Hawk, Vox)
*When a deadline passes, players not voting will be counted as votes for "no lynch".

[From top to bottom: Counts are ordered highest to lowest, and then oldest first]
[From left to right: Votes are shown in the order the votes were cast]

[Vox]

So after all that has been discussed any reason I still have two votes on me? I am going vote no lynch as the deadline is approaching and I am not sure if we will get an extension... I do see Seric's point that we do have around a 28% of lynching a mafia but i think it is too risky at this junction.

Vote: No Lynch

P.S. Diagram was beautiful bob

[almightybob.ps]

I would like to wait for Rev and Hawk to post, showing that they do not wish to claim Cop or Jailkeeper, before we no lynch.

Unvote Vox for now.

Does anyone have any person they highly suspect and want me to check for the night, because i am not fully sure who to check and im constantly going over all pages looking at everything but i just get multiple people tying for suspiciousness so i would probably lucky dip between them

I would advise against taking suggestions from people here, because some of them are Mafia. If you are indeed the Tracker then right now the only person you know you can trust is yourself.

doesn't your diagram assume we don't successfully lynch or Tim doesn't successfully track a mafia player or for the duration?

Yes, it's a worst-case scenario. If we do successfully lynch a Mafia on Day 2 then our final opportunity will be on Day 4, not Day 3.

[Apoc.ps]

Someone (Vox or bob) tell Rev to come onto the forum

[Sn0w.ps]

Vote no
I had said this earloer but not picked up.

[Rev.ps]

Hey guys, sorry my brother had to message me to return to town. I was away getting distracted by wedding preparations followed by helping my mum pack up her house(belongings not the building before facetiousness rouses its head) for moving and apologize for that.

I stated multiple times I only wanted an unvote from bob if he did not have any real reasons, I was trying to avoid a bandwagon forming. Nuff said.

Having read up quickly I agree a no lynch( as horrible as they generally are) is the best bet for now.

Unvote

Vote: No Lynch

I will say that the tracker can target me if he wants as it will clear me with no action but as its not in the best interests of the town I would suggest targeting Vox as he is still the person I am most suspicious of. God help us all though I have a niggling worry forming that our suspicions against one another are playing right into mafia hands...

[Hawk.ps]

Sorry guys, I need to read up. Just starting with my job, quite busy

[Apoc.ps]

Only just realised we've reach a majority before the deadline.

********************************
Vote Count as of Wed 5th Nov @ 9.30pm

5 No Lynch............(TinyTim, Seric, Vox, Sn0w, Rev)
0 Hawk
0 Vox
0 almightybob
0 TinyTim
0 Gunmens
0 Sn0w
0 Rev

3 players not voting.......(Gunmens, Hawk, almightybob)

[From top to bottom: Counts are ordered highest to lowest, and then oldest first]
[From left to right: Votes are shown in the order the votes were cast]

[Apoc.ps]

It is now night-time.


You may not speak about the game outside the thread or post in this thread.

Mafia may now communicate with each other.

[Apoc.ps]

Day 2 has begun.


almightyBob (vanilla townie) has been murdered!!


with 7 players remaining it takes 4 votes to lynch.